Some truely interesting material circles around a recent research paper published in Nature that got some criticism around – maths and conflict. I am fascinated by it since these are tools we commonly use in our field (especially for Hydrology) and I really wouldn’t have thought about applying it in conflict studies. So basically I have no clue about joining these two topics and am myself just about to dive into the topic.

[Report] Mathematics of War by Bohorquez et.al.

You can find the report on the page to download including additional material.

[Blog] Criticism of it at Sriks6711

[Blog] Zero Intelligence Agents by Drew Conway

… with the, to me, most obvious and understandable observation:

The role of the media is central to the decision model proposed by the authors, which is illustrated in the figure above. Again, however, this presents a logical disconnect. As the figure describes, the authors claim that insurgents are updating their beliefs and strategies based on the information and signals they receive from broadcast news, then deciding whether to execute an attack. For lack of a better term, this is clearly putting the cart before the horse. The media is reporting attacks, as the authors’ data clearly proves; therefore, the insurgents’ decision to attack is creating news, and as such insurgents are gaining no new information from media reports on attacks that they themselves have perpetrated. Rather, the insurgents retain a critical element of private information, and are updating based on the counter-insurgency policies of the state—information they are very likely not receiving from the media.