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Election 2013: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) chances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

This article is part of a series of evidence-based analysis of Pakistan’s current political spectrum with the use of statistics, GIS and data visualization. We will further explore the position of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s electoral tsunami in the upcoming general elections 2013 to forecast if it has a realistic chance to win the next elections. 

Read first: Political spectrum of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) – Part I: ANP, PPP & MMA

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, commonly known referred as KP or KPK, is perhaps the most democratic province in the country and its electoral history is testament to that fact. This, perhaps, goes as far back as 1500 years when Pushtunwali code – a code of life for ethnic Pushtun/Pukhtun people – was formed. Pushtunwali codes states that ‘nobody is above you and nobody is below you’. This is ingrained in their psyche and candidates are judged on their past performance and record when Pushtuns go out to vote. Performance also becomes a key factor here when we speak of last two elections as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering troublesome FATA region and war-torn Afghanistan,  was at the center of US war on terror and faced the brunt of the war.
Electoral History KPK - 2002

Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of right-wing parties, swept through KPK in 2002 election securing 29 out of 35 National Assembly seats. However, their lack of performance and silence over US war in Afghanistan turned people away from them and in 2008 elections, left-wing parties Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPPP), were able to secure 19 seats. The rest were divided among Pakistan Muslim League factions and MMA.

Electoral History KPK - 2008

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and more importantly its leader Imran Khan, has been vocal against US war in Afghanistan and price Pakistan is paying for supporting US, with thousands of lives, terrorism and economic collapse; voicing the popular sentiment in Pakistan and especially in KPK province. As we go for elections in 20 days, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa looks like a fortress of PTI with its effects bleeding into FATA region comprising of 7 tribal agencies where people will vote for political parties for the first time in 2013 election. Internal PTI members stats suggest that party is poised to win at least 18 seats of National Assembly from the province; with Taliban targeting ANP and PPPP political activities, PTI is the only party that is campaigning in the province with full force and is likely to sweep KPK with a possibility of 27 seats.

Constituency Name 2002 2008 Variation Chances
NA-1 Peshawar-I MMA ANP Different Likely
NA-2 Peshawar-II MMA PPPP Different Win
NA-3 Peshawar-III MMA PPPP Different Win
NA-4 Peshawar-IV MMA ANP Different Win
NA-5 Nowshera-I MMA PPPP Different Win
NA-6 Nowshera-II MMA ANP Different Win
NA-7 Charsadda-I MMA ANP Different Possible
NA-8 Charsadda-II PPPS PPPS Same Result Win
NA-9 Mardan-I MMA ANP Different Win
NA-10 Mardan-II MMA MMA Same Result Possible
NA-11 Mardan-III MMA PPPP Different Win
NA-12 Swabi-I MMA Independent Different Win
NA-13 Swabi-II MMA ANP Different Likely
NA-14 Kohat MMA ANP Different Win
NA-15 Karak MMA MMA Same Party Likely
NA-16 Hangu MMA ANP Different Not Likely
NA-17 Abbottabad-I PMLQ PMLN Different Possible
NA-18 Abbottabad-II PMLQ PMLN Different LIkely
NA-19 Haripur PMLQ PMLN Different Possible
NA-20 Mansehra-I PMLQ PMLQ Same Result Not Likely
NA-21 Mansehra-II MMA MMA Same Party Not Likely
NA-22 Battagram MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely
NA-23 Kohistan MMA Independent Different Possible but no candidate
NA-24 D.I.Khan MMA PPPP Different Possible
NA-25 D.I.Khan-com-Tank MMA MMA Same Party Possible
NA-26 Bannu MMA MMA Same Party Not Likely
NA-27 Lakki Marwat MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely
NA-28 Buner PPPS ANP Different Possible
NA-29 Swat-I MMA ANP Different Win
NA-30 Swat-II MMA PPPP Different Win
NA-31 Shangla MMA PMLQ Same Person, Different Party Not Likely
NA-32 Chitral MMA PMLQ Different Not Likely
NA-33 Upper Dir-cum-Lower Dir (Old
Upper Dir
MMA PPPP Different Possible
NA-34 Lower Dir MMA PPPP Different Likely
NA-35 Malakand P.A MMA PPPP Different Win

A geo-spatial analysis of the above table reveals that PTI has hit the power center of KPK – Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Nowshehra & Swabi – and is rapidly reaching to the urban parts of the province. With PTI chairman Imran Khan visiting two districts – Karak and Dera Ismail Khan – in the mostly politically ignored Southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI hopes to sweep the province with effects reaching to Tribal Agencies in the West, Seraiki area on the East and Northern parts of Pushtun-dominated Baluchistan. As a most potent electoral force in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2013 election, PTI has finally arrived!

PTI Election Forecast 2013 - Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK)

NOTE: Please read our explanation of our writings with Data Analysis through geo-spatial visualizations here before commenting. 

About Author: Yasir H. Sheikh helps with PTI Election Campaign as a Data & Geo-spatial Analyst. This analysis was based on PTI’s internal members stats which mainstream media and analysts do not have access to. Moreover, broadcasters in Pakistan normally ignore scientific methods while analysing a party’s chances in Election. 

 

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About Yasir H. Sheikh

an Entrepreneur who maintains his ventures Al Rug and PrintSage from Lahore.

Discussion

5 thoughts on “Election 2013: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) chances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

  1. This is one of the most ridiculous analysis I’ve ever read. The author is not capable enough to do a detailed research and include the sympathy factor that ANP is getting these days. There were roughly about 17 meetings of JUI’s Moulana Atta and Moulana Fazal with several tribal leaders assuring a considerable number of seats in Natioanal and Provincial assemblies, but it appears that the writer mistakenly forgot to think of JUI as a main stream political in KPK – funny :) We really need true researchers, with sound academic and scientific backgrounds to write such articles and to bring detailed synopsis of the true picture. Someone working with PTI on a menial volunteer position is in no standing to predict a forecast about the election results. All the data is available to researchers and analytics and I request them to write such pieces of information. Here, I highly condemn this article and it is very misleading and deceitful and should be taken down immediately and the author should be send to a graduate school for further education, training and learning (stop these cheap gaudy chawalian) – cheers.

    Posted by Maryam | April 22, 2013, 6:19 PM
    • Maryam, thank you for your comments. I reckon, you missed the earlier part of the series which outlines PPP, ANP and MMA strengths in KPK before we tried to gauge PTI’s presence in province: http://rugpundits.com/2013/03/11/data-darbar-on-current-data-based-writing-at-rugpundits/

      It is only predicting possible results with only electoral data as there is a certain tap kept of information in Pakistan. Hence, there is a dearth of information that is required to make a forecast, and we only relied on geo-spatial analysis of past electoral data and PTI’s members strengths. For the factors like sympathy for ANP, there is no public research or data available for that so we can not take that into account here. Our aim it to get debate started on more data and geo-spatial analysis in Pakistan and not pluck forecasts out of thin air. If you had a little research on our blog, you could have found this explanation about data and geo-spatial analysis useful: http://rugpundits.com/2013/03/11/data-darbar-on-current-data-based-writing-at-rugpundits/

      Have a good day!

      Posted by Yasir H. Sheikh | April 25, 2013, 10:30 PM
    • You yourself are analysing facts based on the twisted ridiculous analysis of 2002 elections…4 crore new voters have been added and 3 crore fake voters have been eradicated so dont just fucking ridicule a person on your weird analysis and come out of your damn shithole you are sleeping in…go on road maryam then speak..You homie..

      Posted by Hasan | May 6, 2013, 4:27 PM
  2. I AM 90% AGREED TO THE ABOVE DATA. I ALSO DID SUCH TYPE OF PREDICTIONS IN PAST TWO ELECTIONS AND 80% RESULTS WERE TRUE FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY.

    Posted by KHAN LALA | April 26, 2013, 9:27 PM
  3. Guys, once again, I must say that I disagree with the hallucination that is being pictured here. There is no way PTI is doing any kind of ‘sweep’ in KPK. The credibility and academic background of the author is highly disputed and he totally lacks the ability to do any analysis with just a bachelors degree from punjab university. Just because he is a jiyala of PTI and working on some volunteer position, doesn’t qualify him to do analysis on such high profile , national issues. This is the reason why this blog is never quoted or being referenced anywhere except where the author self advertise his own work ! Good luck with your dreams but I’ll stick to my analysis that PTI is not winning any more than 20 NA seats on May 11 (please do not delete this comment , i want to see how true is my prediction)

    Posted by Maryam | May 7, 2013, 5:36 PM

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